After a seven month delay for data in the most heavily weighted component (Initial Claims for reemployment assistance) in our index, the State of Florida has finally resolved its issues with the “connect” system and we are back to a normal monthly publishing.
During the delay, growth has moderated in the Tallahassee area and we now sit in a multi-month downtrend with only one significantly positive month in the past eight.
The Tallahassee Economic Index (TEI) fell 11.48 points to 47 in April, following a 11.71 point increase in March and a 7.85 point decrease in February.
Says Brett F. Ewing, Founder of the Tallahassee Economic Index:
“The most alarming data we collected this month was the severe spike in initial reemployment claims, which was the largest in over 10 years. Without a break in the downward trend of the index and moving averages in the next few months—a shallow recession would be a strong possibility.”
“The latest housing numbers we are getting for the Tallahassee area are definitely confirming a growth moderation trend that we are also seeing in the broader national market.” says Lance Mitchell, Director of Research at the TEI. “What we will be focusing on in the upcoming months is to try to get an idea if the moderation will be sending us into a normal 2-3% annual growth environment or if it sends us into an actual housing correction.”
TEI Mission: To establish an index that tracks and predicts economic growth in the city of Tallahassee. This will be accomplished using data collected from official sources in Leon County.